History of Science 3: Bacon & Induction

Inductive Reasoning

Aristotle’s deductive arguments were the most popular and effective way to arrive at true statements for 1800 years.

That was until the Enlightenment and a man by the name of Francis Bacon came up with his own technique. He was a nobleman and politicians in England during the reign of King James. He was dissatisfied with traditional methods of truth seeking. He saw it as restrained by existing belief systems and commonly accepted claims.

One of the most famous failings of deductive reasoning is the black swan fallacy.

·         A: All of the swans I have ever seen have been white. Therefore, all swans are white.

·         B: Here's a black swan.

·         A: All swans are white, therefore that can't be a swan.

Bacon saw the problems with these kinds of statements. “If a man will begin with certainties, he shall end with doubts, but if he will be content to begin with doubts he shall end in certainties.” Bacon came up with his own system. It was a system that gathered multiple observations, to form an idea of something bigger. His system collected these ideas to find something that was most likely.

Bottom of page 310 to end of chapter? In demon haunted

Page 202 of Demon haunted 

As a lawyer, he saw many people convicted of crimes on very bad reasons.

• This person was found with the victims blood on their hands,
• The murderer would have the victim’s blood on them,
• Therefore this is the murderer

Except, this wasn’t always the case. Are there other reasons to explain this?

Therefore the deductive argument isn’t enough.

Victim found in the cellar
Accused found in the cellar
Therefore, they're the killer

The certainty of the conclusion is unfounded by the statements

The person could've been the one who discovered the body or the person was there for other reasons

Instead Bacon found a wealth of potential evidence that suggested the truth without bringing logical certainty. Bacon instead aimed for degrees of accuracy rather than absolute certainty.

“In order to obtain maximum objectivity, we must entertain only a minimum of preconceptions.”

Bacon reasoned that induction was a more reasonable way of discovering truth. By making observations and experiencing things, we can analyze data, form a hypothesis. If that hypothesis matches up with other tests it can become a theory. An induction can’t become a fact but a deduction does. Bacon broke down the old, rigid ways of classifying knowledge in favor of building a new understanding from the ground up, using experiments to prove or disprove a theory.

A bloody cleaver found on a farm
The body was found behind the barbers
Large footsteps through the mud
A poorly written threatening letter
Who do you imagine to be the killer?

Bale, a divorced farmer
Dennis, quiet butcher
Hugh, a polish barber
Florence, a mysterious factory worker

The more evidence, the more likely an accusation could be correct

You've watched crime thrillers. The first suspect, with limited information is often falsely accused but the more evidence the more you can rule out.

Hugh writes poetry as a hobby
Dennis was working in the store all day
Florence wasn't at work that day
Bale's parents vouched for his whereabouts

A cleaver went missing at the butcher's
Witnesses saw a man in the area
Hugh was at the opera at the time
Bale has muddy boots

The more layers of evidence the more likely your theory is correct

Bale’s wedding ring was found with the body

Hugh was socializing with many people at the opera

Florence took her child to the doctor that day

Dennis has a history of losing things

What’s your conclusion?

Watch and write down inductive evidence

Idols of the Mind

Bacon believed there to be at least four different kinds of biases. He compared the human mind with an enchanted mirror.

"For the mind of man is far from the nature of a clear and equal glass, wherein the beams of things should reflect according to their true incidence; nay, it is rather like an enchanted glass, full of superstition and imposture, if it be not delivered and reduced."

Idol of the Tribe

The first is of human instinct. One example would be the proximity bias. Right after 9/11 many people had a fear of flying and preferred to drive, even though the mortality rate from driving is 1,623 times higher than flying commercial airlines. We care more about things that are close in space or time. If a crime happens on your street you’re going to care more than a crime on the other side of town.

Sir Francis Bacon clearly understood the first-conclusion bias and the confirmation bias.

“The human understanding when it has once adopted an opinion (either as being the received opinion or as being agreeable to itself) draws all things else to support and agree with it. And though there be a greater number and weight of instances to be found on the other side, yet these it either neglects and despises, or else by some distinction sets aside and rejects, in order that by this great and pernicious predetermination the authority of its former conclusions may remain inviolate.”

Basically, humans naturally seek what confirms their existing beliefs. Generally because it’s uncomfortable to be wrong about something. It has a habit of making us feel insecure as a whole, as if our entire being, identity or group is being criticized. However, this is people most often get mislead.

Page 144 of Great Guide

Idols of the Cave

Idols of the cave (a throwback to Plato) is our natural bias to interpret things through our experience of the world. For example: If you grow up in Saudi Arabia, odds are you’re going to be a Muslim and see things from that point of view. If you grow up in Thailand, odds are you’ll be Buddhist. If you grow up in India, odds are you’ll be Hindu. If you grow up with Republican parents you’re more likely to be Republican. People are also often products of their time, holding the values and ethics the people of their time period.

Idols of the Marketplace

Bacon identified a bias of words. In a conversation the wrong word can trigger an emotional response. Words that aren’t understood the same way by both people. Generationally words fall out of favor or because negative. Victorians used to casually call anyone that wasn’t industrialized a “savage”. This wasn’t necessarily an insult to them but purely a state of being. Today the word undeveloped nation is looked down upon and “developing nation” is preferred. The use of the wrong word can sour a conversation. Even when it comes to many non-controversial words, right, heavy and cold are all degrees of something and don’t accurately express what someone means.

Idols of the Theater

In our day and age this would be the social media, public personalities and influencers and how they alter your perception of the world. A film about a people group that treats them stereotypically will reenforce your view of that people group despite the portrayal being fictional. Media personalities can speak convincingly and holding them in high regard, their fans don’t want to see them proven wrong.

Science is like solving a crime

Presences – where is that thing? (What evidence?)

Absences – where is that thing absent? (closely related examples to presences) (what alibi?)

Degrees – where are things more prevalent than others? (How important?)

Form of heat?

Movement/energy

The Problem of Induction

If science has been one of the most revolutionary and progressive achievements in mankind, then Francis Bacon is one of the most important people ever. Thomas Jefferson had paintings of John Locke, Isaac Newton and Francis Bacon on his walls. He described the three as “trinity of the three greatest men the world ever produced.” However, Bacon wasn’t perfect. He’s believed to have take bribes in his time and was also a product of his time with regard to his views on women.

As great and revolutionary as his development of inductive reasoning was, it still wasn’t perfect. Bacon knew that the conclusions wouldn’t be certain and guaranteed but some felt as through the technique still made certain assumptions.

The Problem of Induction – p66&67&96 of The Great Guide

You have to assume the uniformity of nature, that one event will repeat in the same way. How do you know the sun will rise? That your chair won’t throw you off. Because it didn’t last time, what made you sit on it that time? How do you know the future will behave like the past? Why do you think it will continue? Past experience is a guide for life.

Hume said, “We only have a fragile grip on reality, one we cling to by custom, habit and instinct.”

Another great misunderstanding of induction comes from Sherlock Holmes.

Sherlock Holmes – “When you have eliminated all which is impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth.”

How can you know when you’ve eliminated all possibilities? This is an example of someone trying to bring the certainty of deductive reasoning into the inductive process. This isn’t how it works.

Induction 

Who ate the cake?

It's on the counter top
Nobody in the house but the cat and dog
Large bite
Sharp teeth
Frosting all over the dogs face

Likely?
Dog ate it.

Other possibilities, cat dislocated it's jaw and framed the dog or a vampire snuck in undetected and framed the dog

Were you there? Did you see it?